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Hey Minnesota: it’s time to mask up (and get your vax up to date, ffs).

A lot of “COVID numbers surging!!!!!” posts cross my TL that I don’t boost because:

1. they seem to be based on a transient fluctuation in wastewater data (which is very noisy),

2. they seem to be based on a data processing error (more downthread), or

3. I can’t see the putative surge in the data at all.

This appears not to be one of those cases. A Dec wave is underway.

umn.maps.arcgis.com/apps/dashb

1/

What am I seeing in that graph that makes me say this?

COVID wastewater data is •wildly• noisy, which makes it hard to read. It’s full of huge fluctuations that look utterly apocalyptic, and appear to mean…nothing.

I reeeeally doubt, for example, that COVID cases in the entire state of MN magically spiked •and then receded• by a factor of ~5x over a period of ~2 weeks last May. What •is• that?! Reporting artifact? A few extra-big poops? Whatever it is, I doubt it’s disease trajectory.

2/

What I’m seeing that makes me say “This is a wave, not a data artifact” is the consistency of the larger curve shape. The consistency of the larger curve here is, as they say, not attributable to chance.

Here’s that data source again: umn.maps.arcgis.com/apps/dashb

This is just “eyeball data science” here, no publishable results — but sufficient to make some reasonable decisions about my own behavior.

3/

I seem to be almost alone in the world in thinking that I should change my behavior in response to changing COVID conditions. People mostly seem to be either (1) pretending COVID is over and/or can’t hurt them or anyone else, or (2) maintaining maximal hermetic isolation.

Here’s the thing: the odds of a random person having COVID can vary 20x or more over time. That’s “driving with or without a seatbelt” kind of difference — just from time passing.

4/

@inthehands there are those of us in between who take reasonable precautions (masking and limiting being around crowds indoors).