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In thinking about Gaza now, I've come to a few conclusions.
1) Most Americans don't seem to understand how FEW actual Palestinian Americans there are in this country -- only about 170k -- and they represent at least two separate waves of immigration. Quite a few are Christians whose families have been here since before 1967 -- Edward Said was among this group -- and many Palestinians have intermarried with other Arabs etc. The idea that American Arabs are going to stand as a single voting bloc
that can and should push Kamala Harris to stop the genocide seem pretty dubious to me. Interestingly enough, Chicagoland appears to have the largest single group of Palestinian Americans but I did not see them come out to protest in any numbers.
2) I see a lot of Gaza single-issue voters who seem to be more concerned with Israel not getting weapons FROM US than they really are about Israel not getting weapons. It is 100% certain to me that if we cut them off they will go to China.
Luckily Russia's ability to make weapons seems to be at a low ebb, because that would be even worse. Realignment from US ally to Chinese would have VERY unpredictable consequences and is clearly the thing that Biden is trying to avoid.
3) The star of the current YC class is a startup that makes CHEAP CRUISE MISSILES. Instead of $3mm per missile, they will go for $300k each. In conjunction with the amount of warfighting that has already been converted to drone warfare, expensive US weapons may
already be a pretty moot point. We sent a CARRIER GROUP to the Red Sea to fight Houthi rebels with drones! Look what the Ukrainians have accomplished with their drones. The world of weaponry is in a period of MASSIVE ferment right now, but the trend is definitely smaller and cheaper. Israel has a massive advantage in software, but obvs they still want to buy US technology.
4) It's genuinely less clear to me than ever who is negotiating -- who is even CAPABLE of negotiating -- a ceasefire from
the Palestinian side. Hamas had two leaders nominally speaking for Gaza, they assassinated one and the other is a fighter not a diplomat. A ceasefire, much less lasting peace, does not seem to me to be in the power of the POTUS to deliver at this time. I'd love to be wrong, but there you go.
@troutgirl they also want the USA as a market, and as a source of startup capital. They could find both in China, but that would be a massive shift. There is also the “debt comes due” issue with China