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#cryptolobby

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Molly White

They also claim that “When Democrats come out as pro-crypto, they are following the lead of their own non-white base voters, who view crypto positively”, despite their own poll data showing that about 3 in 4 respondents do not view crypto positively.

#crypto#cryptocurrency#USpol
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Molly White

For example, their claim that “1-2% of Democrats who may be leaning towards Trump due the Biden Administration’s hostility to crypto” is a) not 1-2%, b) is not actually sampling respondents “who may be leaning towards Trump”, and c) did not try to establish any causative link.

Paradigm: “Takeaway 1: Democratic crypto voters are up for grabs this November. Making inroads with crypto owners could help Vice President Harris win back some wayward Democrats and increase her likelihood of winning. As of right now, there are 1-2% of Democrats who may be leaning towards Trump due the Biden Administration’s hostility to crypto.” Commentary: “They get right to the point about their goals with this survey. With polling that began just after Harris replaced Biden as the Democratic nominee and immediately began picking up steam, this poll seems to have been commissioned at least in part in hopes of convincing the Harris campaign, and those around her, that “making inroads with crypto owners” is something she needs to prioritize. It also fits with the timing of their previous poll, which was trying to convince Trump that he needed to attract Republicans who own crypto while he was leading in the polls. This is a bit of an odd data point, and odder still was the decision to highlight it as the very first finding, given it is also one of the weakest claims from this poll. First, let me remind you that they’ve just stated a paragraph earlier that the margin of error in this poll is 3.5%.
Second, the math doesn’t really work out. I’ve confirmed with Paradigm that they were calculating from the following graphic the number of “non-Harris voters” (more on that in a second) who responded that the Biden admin was “too hostile” to cryptocurrency, and munging those two together to conclude that this segment thus “may be leaning towards Trump due the Biden Administration’s hostility to crypto”. However, this figure actually comes out to about 2.7%, which is not within the stated “1–2%” range. (13% of 804 respondents is 104.52; 21% of 104.52 is ~22; and 22 out of 804 people is ~2.7%.) I was informed they decided to provide a lower estimate in the summary than their polling suggested, because 2–3% “felt too aggressive”. But that raises the question: why bother polling if you’re just going to change the numbers? Third, they did not ask any questions about whether the Biden admin’s perceived hostility might actually push these people to vote for Trump, nor do they provide any details about how many of these “non-Harris voters” would consider voting for Trump in general.
I verified with Paradigm that this 13% “undecided” figure is indeed the proportion of people who indicated they would be voting for Trump, a third-party candidate, or had not yet decided, but that they had not polled on whether these voters would choose not to vote for Harris. In my opinion, it’s misleading to suggest in the summary that these people are all “not voting for Harris” (or refer to them throughout as “non-Harris voters”) given that they did not indicate that, and some of those undecided voters may well end up voting for Harris — as might some of those who indicated they would vote for a third-party candidate who later dropped out.
#crypto#cryptocurrency#USpol
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Molly White

Rather than my usual newsletter, this is one of my annotations (although newsletter subscribers will have received an issue sharing it as well). I break down the poll point-by-point, with additional context I got from speaking to Paradigm’s team about their methodology.

#crypto#cryptocurrency#USpol
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Molly White

I break down yet another poll out of the cryptocurrency industry. This one, via the Paradigm crypto-focused venture capital firm, is focused on Democratic voters. It claims that Democratic politicians, including Harris, need to embrace crypto to attract voters. Is the poll any good?

mollywhite.net/annotations/par

Molly White · Annotated: Paradigm’s July 2024 Democratic Public Opinion PollBy Molly White
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⚯ Michel de Cryptadamus ⚯

Some extracts from my pinned toot concerning the ways in which #Uniswap is a particularly diabolical means of capital extraction devised by #TheNerdReich bros of #a16z, #SequoiaCapital, and the rest (and their obscenely well paid and equally obscenely dishonest lawyers) and how the capital being extracted is currently being funneled into the 2024 election.

(The specifics of the electoral corruption are better documented by @molly0xfff; this is more an in depth explainer of the mechanics of one of The Nerd Reich's more effective grifts.)

#MarcAndreessen #SequoiaCapital #BenHorowitz #crypto #COIN #Cryptocurrency #AndreessenHorowitz #ethereum #Sunswap #SwftSwap #LazarusGroup #moneylaundering #FinReg #FinCEN #sanctions #CryptoLobby #USpol #USpolitics #Republicans #politics #CraftVentures #GOP #TheNerdReich

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⚯ Michel de Cryptadamus ⚯

#TheCryptocalypseChronicles: Of Tech Bros And Trumpers

The reason so many Silicon Valley billionaires suddenly decided to back #DonaldTrump is not the mystery the media is making it out to be.

tl;dr The billionaires backing #Trump are crypto bros and they want to continue profiting from committing various kinds of crimes.

This is a "follow the money" deep dive into how some of these bros profit by investing in companies like #Uniswap that create excellent tools for #NorthKorea to launder stolen money with a passing explanation of how #Coinbase facilitates the overall system.

Ω👇Ω
cryptadamus.substack.com/p/of-

#a16z#MarcAndreessen#SequoiaCapital
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Molly White

Furthermore, the supposed number of crypto holders (“52 million”!) that companies like Coinbase like to throw around come largely from a poorly-designed survey with methodology its designers seem unwilling to disclose, and are vastly higher than other estimates.

The American cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, which is behind the Stand With Crypto advocacy group and super PAC [I62], loves to trot out the figure: “52 million Americans own crypto”. This would suggest that more than 20% of adult Americans hold crypto. Other even higher figures have been presented, including those as large as 100 million — or more than 1/3 of the adult population. The thinking goes: if such a large proportion of Americans own crypto, surely they will support crypto-friendly candidates at the ballot box.c The number is, however, highly dubious. The 52 million figure comes from a 2023 Coinbase-funded survey by Morning Consult that dramatically contradicts other surveys, such as a report from the Federal Reserve7 that found that only 7% of adultsd had engaged in any use of cryptocurrency that year (including buying or holding), and, furthermore, that that figure was shrinking. The Fed survey also notes that their number may skew high because the survey was conducted online. Table 21. Cryptocurrency use Type of use 2021 2022 2023 Bought cryptocurrency or held as an investment 11 8 7 Used cryptocurrency to buy something or make a payment 2 2 1 Used cryptocurrency to send money to friends or family 1 2 1 Any use of cryptocurrency 12 10 7 Note: Among all adults. Respondents could select multiple answers.
Statistician David Marker recently opined in an interview with Jake Donoghue: “This survey has not provided enough information to refute claims of it being low quality and spurious. [Morning Consult] hasn’t presented evidence to make you feel comfortable… with a survey which was funded by an organization which would like and benefit from these results.” Marker then noted his concerns that there may have been a serious sampling flaw in Morning Consult’s survey that, if it exists, would invalidate the numbers entirely. Though Donoghue was able to discuss the survey with Morning Consult, they stopped responding when he asked about their sampling and methodology, and never responded to his follow-up inquiries.
#CitationNeeded#crypto#CryptoLobby
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Molly White

A glance at the survey design quickly reveals the story the industry was hoping to tell with the results. Even more profound are the kinds of questions that were not included, which could have provided a clearer (but perhaps unwanted) view of voters’ actual beliefs.

A glance at the survey design quickly reveals the story the industry was hoping to tell with the results, asking respondents to agree or disagree with statements like “Crypto is more equitable than the traditional financial system” and “Crypto represents a new way towards financial security and prosperity”.
Even more profound are the kinds of questions that were not included, which could have provided a clearer (but perhaps unwanted) view of voters’ actual beliefs. While the poll invited respondents to agree or disagree with the statement: “Crypto is a major issue I’m considering during the next election”, they failed to distinguish between respondents who viewed crypto negatively or were hoping for stricter regulations, and those who might support crypto-friendly candidates. There were no questions inquiring about how people prioritized cryptocurrency alongside other common election issues. There were no questions aimed at determining if a respondent might be willing to overlook other policy disagreements, or partisan alliances, if a candidate aligned with them on crypto. Furthermore, the summary of survey results betrays the industry’s attempt to present this seemingly manufactured narrative. Without digging into the numbers, the survey summary seems to support the industry’s story that there is a sizable group of voters — in swing states, no less! — looking for any crypto-friendly candidate they can support. The numbers, on the other hand, reveal that 69% of the survey respondents held a negative opinion of cryptocurrency. And nowhere does the survey mention that out of the 252 people who responded that “crypto is a major issue I’m considering during the next election”, 100 of them held a negative opinion of the asset class.
#CitationNeeded#crypto#CryptoLobby
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Molly White

An April 2024 survey funded by the Digital Currency Group and published by the crypto lobbying group The Blockchain Association was not shy about aiming its messaging directly at politicians, trying to convince them of the existence of a sizable crypto voting bloc.

Key Findings 6 Crypto as a voting issue could present a key opportunity for political candidates. • The vast majority of voters overall and Crypto-Positive voters plan to vote in the upcoming 2024 elections (90%+)and are closely split in party lean. • A sizeable number of voters (40%) wish political candidates talked more about digital currency. • Most voters do not trust elected officials to understand innovative technology like crypto, and more than half are concerned about policymakers stifling innovation via overregulation. The vast majority want policymakers to be sure they understand crypto before regulating. • Nearly half of voters do not trust political candidates that would interfere with crypto. One-quarter say that enthusiasm towards crypto would make them trust a political candidate more. 30% would be more likely to support a political candidate that is friendly to crypto. • The Crypto-Positive bloc is even more strongly in favor of pro-crypto positions than overall voters.
#CitationNeeded#crypto#CryptoLobby
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Molly White

The cryptocurrency industry has been working overtime to sell a story: that there is a large contingent of voters voting based on candidates’ crypto policy stances. The problem is, it’s a story that does not seem to be well supported by data.

citationneeded.news/when-did-c

Citation Needed · When did cryptocurrency policy become a voter issue?I don’t believe that it has.
#CitationNeeded#crypto#CryptoLobby
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Molly White

Coinbase has tried to portray its “Stand With Crypto” PAC as having broad grassroots support among over a million “crypto advocates”, and boasts on its homepage of nearly $180 million raised by these advocates.

Its first quarterly FEC filing reveals it has had only $13,690 in contributions from seven people since its creation. Two of them work for Stand With Crypto and two of them work for Coinbase.

Stand with Crypto homepage. Headline: "If you care about crypto, it's time to prove it". Subhead "52 million Americans own crypto. And yet, crypto's future in America remains uncertain. Congress is writing the rules as we speak - but they won't vote YES until they've heard from you." $179,360,865(i) donated by crypto advocates 1,286,014 crypto advocates 215,665 policymaker contacts
FEC Form 3x for Stand With Crypto Alliance, Inc. Political Action Committee, showing a filing date of 7/15/2024, and a coverage period of 4/1/2024 to 6/30/2024.
FEC Form 3x for Stand With Crypto, showing $0 in cash on hand at the beginning of the reporting period and $13,690.18 in total receipts
#crypto#CryptoLobby#USpolitics
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