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This seems so science-fictiony that most people won't take it seriously. That would be a bad mistake.

Not only are we messing up the planet, we're also inadvertently shutting our door to space. When we're shut in, we're probably shut in for ever.

And when I say "we" are shutting that door, I mean mainly Musk.

robertvanwey.substack.com/p/th

The Evidence Files · The Imminence of the Destruction of the Space ProgramBy Robert Vanwey

@gleick I'm not convinced shutting the door isn't a good thing. It completely cuts off both the TESCREAList narrative about "good of the future trillions of human minds across the galaxy at the expense of every real person here now except the billionaires" and the prospects of space capitalism. We don't need space; it's awesome to explore but not essential to survival or happiness.

@dalias @gleick we really do need GPS and satellite communications relays for modern society to function without serious redesign (which we could do, yes, but it would be quite traumatic)

@aburka @gleick It'd be a strain for them to break but we'd be fine. Eliminating satellite TV etc would be excellent. Satellite internet except starlink is too lagged to be useful anyway.

yes it would in fact be a 'strain' to throw a monkey wrench into every major farming and construction operation in America while simultaneously making all air and sea traffic immeasurably more dangerous

CC: @aburka@hachyderm.io @gleick@mas.to

@khm @aburka @gleick You can do surveying & construction without GPS. Maybe minor cost increase but no harm/danger. You can do farming without GPS, but it breaks some of the current large-scale automation. It can be replaced with locally operated triangulation or legacy LORAN-like. I'm not qualified to speak on the air and sea traffic but making them more expensive sounds good for climate...

@khm @aburka @gleick For populated areas, non-GPS-based positioning based on wifi, etc. probably already outperforms it anyway (but is fragile, vulnerable to spoofing, etc.)

Cassandrich

@khm @aburka @gleick Correct me if I'm wrong, but my understanding of a Kessler Syndrome situation is that GPS would fail gradually via inability to replace, not suddenly. So my naive view is that we'd have time to deploy replacements that don't depend on access to space. Something GPS-like should be possible with constellations of "weather balloons" tracking their precise positions relative to earth optically.

@dalias @khm @gleick you can get a debris cascade, so it would be gradually and then all at once, exactly the type of problem humans are calibrated to avoid solving until it's too late :/