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This. What @NZedAUS said.
It’s important to recognize — and please take a moment to let this sink in — that if the hostages all return home and the war ends, that is a •disaster• for Netanyahu.
The hostages and the war are the only thing keeping him afloat right now. Without them, he’s sunk. His back is to the wall. He •needs• this ongoing disaster to survive. And he’s willing to sacrifice anyone and anything — except himself — to prolong it. https://mastodon.nz/@NZedAUS/113065656738049256
This is why — and I’m going to catch some hate in the replies for this, but so be it — this is why it really rankles me when people feel the need to center •US• politicians in every single damned post about Netanyahu’s ongoing campaign of genocide.
Yes, yes, the Biden admin have up to this point grossly underutilized what leverage they have. I just think you all grossly overestimate how much leverage that really is.
These massive demonstrations in Israel right now give me hope. •That• is what can end this genocide.
For all the imperialist power of the US, for all the idealism of the UN, for all that every one of us worldwide aches for justice, this genocide ultimately ends in one place and one place only: internal Israeli politics.
More power to the protests. Long may they last.
@aRubes
Thank YOU to everyone who is out on the streets in Israel tonight!
@inthehands Ultimately you're right, and it is heartening to see.
I hope the sentiment shown in Israeli polls and surveys I saw a few months after 10/7 changes.
WRT to your 2nd toot, one of the levers of power we are able to pull is to apply pressure to Biden and his administration to do obvious things like stop weapons shipments.
We have no lever in Israel.
That's why many of us are focused here.
I have no way to influence things in Israel.
I hope you won't see this as hate.
@distractal
No, not seen as hate, and understood. But that’s blended into somehow imagining that the whole war is the Biden admin’s fault, which is a direct route to choices that are extremely harmful.
@distractal
Re the specific strategy of stopping weapons shipments: I wish the US would, but (1) that wouldn’t stop the war, it’s a fantasy to imagine it could, and (2) it would very likely throw the US election to a fascist who would remove any and all pressure against Netanyahu. Call for it anyway, yes, because it’s the right thing to do — but don’t lose sight of the sad political reality here, and for heaven’s sake don’t make that the electoral red line that ends US democracy.
@inthehands I don't have any pretenses that stopping weapons shipments will immediately stop the genocide, but it could certainly influence things in that direction. I'm not sure I agree with your second point, as many folks said the same thing about Biden stepping down.
I do know that Gen Z and many Millenials in particular are STRONGLY initiated into the Israeli/Palestine situation and the Biden administration seems to think they don't matter, which could be as catastrophic as you mention.
@inthehands I guess we'll see.
@distractal
Re young voters: Half of the solution is the Biden admin taking visible, concrete action to end the genocide, which they’re just now starting to do in ways they should have done months ago.
The other half of the solution is not convincing young voters that things that •will not happen• not happening is a sign that they are unheard.
@inthehands I think you might have meant to say "overestimate"?
@dave_andersen ach, yes, thx
@inthehands Israel’s economy has contracted by 1/3 and they have mass protests going on daily as well as IDF officers saying they can’t keep up the campaign, some soldiers defecting….and it’s not enough to end the bloodshed and chaos because of how desperate Netanyahu is.
Cutting off weapons shipments to him would not end all this as soon as people think, and he might just go get weapons from China or Russia or something. I’m sure they’d be eager suppliers.
@MisuseCase
Exactly. What external levers we have are not about pressuring Netanyahu himself, but about ramping up anti-Netanyahu pressure within Israel.
I think people should remember some facts before blaming Netanyahu for the lack of a deal:
Israel agreed to the Biden-UN proposal.
Hamas rejected the Biden-UN proposal.
Israel agreed to the August bridging proposal.
Hamas rejected the August bridging proposal.
@bd_sint @inthehands Israel always rejects deals once Hamas is on board with them, and it keeps killing the Hamas leaders who are actively negotiating and who accept ceasefire deals. This is consistent with a pattern that goes back well before 10/7.
So…nope!
@MisuseCase @inthehands plus he has plenty of weapons, just much less accurate ones