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@joeinwynnewood @Alon

OK Grassroots Joe replied in good faith! He didn't get angry at me or anyone else. He just is unsure about if things have changed. The usual election "this time it's different, white women will vote differently this time because [fascist] has done something that women don't like."

So I'll answer the question.

Most of the increase in "women's" support of Harris, and against Trump, over the past 4 years has come from *Black women*. Still at 90%, but *turnout increased*

@joeinwynnewood @Alon

The reason it's so hard to find breakouts by race when people write headlines like:

* "A surge in "women voters" registration after Harris announced for president!"

And

* "Massive voter registration ahead of vote for abortion!"

There were a few elections where the shift was white women. But in most of these cases, the additional white women voters *are split or close to split in their support*, and most of the progressive shift comes from *Black women*.

@joeinwynnewood @Alon

And, despite what the media (And even what Obama may try to sell you at some points), from a rebound in support of *Black men*

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-candidacy-led-surge-black-voter-enthusiasm-make/story?id=112196882

Because like I said, about 20% of Black men were ready to sit the election out if Biden was the candidate. And this would have cost Dems the election. Because Biden panders to racists, and passes devastatingly racist legislation.

My whole point: pandering to racists *decreases* Black voters turnout, and losses elections

@mekkaokereke @joeinwynnewood @Alon

i agree with you 100%

however, it's interesting how "white women voting against their bigot husbands' wishes" rattles white bigoted men

so the audience for the narrative is not lefty types with rose colored glasses

it's the misogynistic racists the women are married to

it's a perfect earworm for their insecurity, and it has a lot of traction on the right:

https://www.salon.com/2024/11/01/that-is-sick-newt-gingrich-loses-it-over-ad-informing-women-they-can-secretly-vote-for-harris/

so i support the narrative *in the rightwing echo chamber* to torture them

@benroyce @joeinwynnewood @Alon

But we don't need to torture and divide them.

We need to not do or say things that will decrease Black men voters turnout in the last days of the election.

Y'all are not hearing me that this stunt can cost Harris Georgia and North Carolina. No, I'm not being hyperbolic. Yes, it is that close. Yes, it does upset Black men that much. No, Black men do not trust most white Dem voters, and are trying to trust Harris, but stunts like this do no't help.

@mekkaokereke @joeinwynnewood @Alon

understood

i'm getting my rocks off torturing the bigots

but it's not good strategy

i see it

@benroyce @joeinwynnewood @Alon

If the US had dropped pamphlets over Nazi Germany saying "Attention Eva Braun and Anny Geiger! We know that you do not agree with what's going on! We can rescue you! You are safe from your husband!"

US soldiers might have seen this as a funny stunt to cause strife in nazi households. Some US soldiers might have anecdotes that some DE wives really did want out. But mostly, people that had suffered directly under Eva and Anny would be shocked and disappointed.

@benroyce @joeinwynnewood @Alon

Let me spell it out: there are about 10,000 Black men in Georgia right now. They will decide the Georgia election. These men themselves don't even know specifically who they are.

These men had already decided not to vote for Biden, because they are sick of his pandering to racists nonsense. They were going to sit it out

These men then all decided that they would vote for Kamala Harris. But they are not strongly decided.

If they sit out, Trump wins Georgia.

@benroyce @joeinwynnewood @Alon

Every campaign action for the next few days should be run through the very simple filter:

Will this upset these 10,000 Black men in Georgia, and make them decide not to vote at all?

If the answer is yes, then that action should not be taken at all.

There's another 5000 Black men deciding North Carolina, and another 7,000 in Pennsylvania. The good news is, they all get upset by the same stuff!

So it should be easy for Harris to not lose the election.

@mekkaokereke @benroyce @joeinwynnewood @Alon
After watching this, I feel like there is (probably accidentally?) some rebound effect on this. Not the ad itself, I suspect that was off putting ( if you say infuriating, I will concede that, just felt more like 'ugh, really?' in my mental model).

However. The way the conservatives are reacting to it, and the tone they are taking just makes them look -awful- and might galvanize. I am not confident in this, but it feels... possible.