It's cope to talk about how billionaires changed the outcome of the election. Because it's making excuses for the fact that the majority of white men and white women, voted for Trump.
But...
* Black folk are *much* more online than white folk.
* Black folk moved further *left*
1/N
This is like when people tried to pretend that Cambridge Analytica had a huge change in how people vote. Nonsense.
Black folk were the *most* targeted. How they vote didn't change.
Your granny was a Fox watcher before Cambridge Analytica.
Your granny voted for Trump again after Cambridge was gone
Everyone voted how they always vote. In 2016, 2020, and 2024.
What changes, is turnout.
2/N
I had arguments on BlueSky and Mastodon, where Black folk and Arab/Muslim/Palestinian folk said, "I will never vote for Biden again." and people literally said, "They're wrong! They'll come around!"
I'll never understand the confidence to tell people that they are wrong about their own intent to not vote.
3/N
I've shared the math so many times, and people are still confused about it.
Out of 100 Black men voters, ~80 vote Dem and ~20 vote GOP. This has been true for the past ~40 years.
If 20 of the Black Dem men say, "I'm never voting for Biden again!" Then:
* turnout drops by ~20%
* GOP share goes to ~25%
It looks like Trump is gaining and becoming more popular! But in reality, Biden is losing.
Switch Biden out for Harris, and you see things float back towards 80%.
4/N
No billionaire caused those Black men to say "I will never vote for Biden again."
Biden did that to himself.
Harris tried to win them back, and did a decent job! But she own-goaled in October chasing imaginary swing voters.
And fundamentally, she could never win all 20 back. Detroit yes. Dearborn no.
5/N
We're willing to make every excuse:
* It was Cambridge Analytica!
* It was Fox!
* It was Trump!
Every excuse rather than reflect on why no matter the decade, no matter the economy, so many people consistently vote for whichever candidate is perceived to be more harmful to Black people.
6/6
@mekkaokereke but what, hear me out, if we moved even more centrist? That surely will work. We will find the one voter who voted Trump, only because we didn't center hard enough!
@sophieschmieg @mekkaokereke the thing that kills me, at least from my french personal experience, is that I am a centrist voter here. And I voted left lately. Not because the left came to me. Because the others left me out. No need to go to the center to get centrists. Just don't be a massive nazi fuckwit....
@sophieschmieg @mekkaokereke I was commenting this yesterday with a political scientist at the university (I live in Europe, just to clarify), and we both agreed that, if the Democrats have learnt something, the centrist profile is not going to work in the near future. But... well, we live in Europe, so we only have distant clues.
@theklan @sophieschmieg @mekkaokereke I guarantee you, the Democrats have not learned that
@theklan @sophieschmieg @mekkaokereke I assure you they have not learned. I had this hope in every election for the last two decades and I've been wrong every time.
I think it's time lefty Americans move beyond the hope of elections saving us.
@mekkaokereke
Honest question: your analysis of the state of the world and what can be extrapolated from that certainly seems to be spot on pretty much always. But sometimes it feels that you're implying that there is no way that white people will ever change their behavior. It's just, everything could be so much better if we white people just stopped being so god damn racist all the time. Is there really no realistic way to achieve this? (Sorry, rambling, just very distraught atm)
@painting_squirrel @mekkaokereke I think he's pointing at that right-wing white people won't change unless they're actively targeted by white people they trust / care for.
Gran'ma Foxwatcher won't be swayed by a Black canvasser knocking on her door, but _might_ be by her grandchild telling her just how afraid they are of a future under fascism and why it's a likely outcome under TFG.
@Mabande @mekkaokereke
Makes sense, otoh and from personal experience, talking about these things with relatives can also just give them them another "proof" for their conspiracy belief that "the woke mind virus is corrupting the youth" or whatever.
Gah, my emotions are screaming that they really want an easy solution, even though I know that nothing of the like exists, so very frustrating
There is nothing inherent in white folk that makes them be racist. White folk are not equally racist everywhere. Eg the US is particularly racist.
It is very easy to undo the systemic affects of racism. Seriously! Most people don't want to be racist.
The types of things required to reduce racism are *exactly* the types of things that racists try to stop:
* DEI
* Intersectional feminism
* Historically accurate textbooks
* Denounce racism
* Hold racists accountable
Etc.
@mekkaokereke I think if you concede that political campaigning and advertising can have a measurable effect then it follows that CA had an effect. Anyone arguing it 'changed' people's minds is probably tripping but that leaves a lot of room for influence.
@mekkaokereke
while it is clear to me the GOP is rigging the game with voter disenfranchisement, and that Harris is fighting against racism and sexism, this doesn't change the fact the Democrats fully fumbled this.
Obama was also fighting an uphill battle and won, because he was envigorating. he was seen as a change to the status quo.
meanwhile the Democrats under both Biden and Harris represented the status quo.
yes the game is rigged. but they still could have won with a winning strategy.
@mekkaokereke As a distant but fascinated observer from the outside, I appreciate your framing and fresh insight very much.
It seems indeed that failing to "inspire turnout" cost Harris the presidency - but I'm always left asking (maybe because I'm not in the U.S. and don't have the full picture):
1. what effect, in approximate numbers, did voter suppression efforts have on turnout?
(cont..)
2. regarding the argument that Harris should have moved further left/right/somewhere: same question - is there some analysis trying to estimate the actual number of likely voters she would gain and loose by, saying, moving "left" and being more critical of Israel regarding Gaza?
@mekkaokereke I hope I don't come across as I'm trying to find excuses or trying to brush racism under a proverbial carpet. We have a right-wing party doing well in the polls here too, sadly, so there's work to do even though we're nowhere near Trump's level at this point in time.
That's a difficult question to answer.
A much simpler question is just... not saying stuff like this:
@mekkaokereke @hallvors Talk about a long-winded way of saying "I stand for doing the same stuff as them, just slower", yeah
@mekkaokereke This was obvious to you at the time (and events have totally proven you right), so I do wonder why it was not obvious to the democratic establishment. Did they have analysis claiming that trying to go for possible party-switching likely voters was more important than exciting their own core voters? What were the flaws in that analysis, and who did analyse it?
(I completely understand that you probably don't have any answers - just wondering out loud. US politics is so strange.)
@hallvors @mekkaokereke
It's known to both sides that better turnout = bluer result. That's why dem phone banks focus on getting (targeted) people to vote. That's why Republicans focus on suppressing and discouraging turnout. I've been curious about the impact of suppression efforts, too.
@mekkaokereke compulsory voting over here makes everything a lot easier…
@mekkaokereke Can you remind me what Biden said/did to alienate black men ?
So many things. This BlueSky thread covers only 3 of his greatest hits: Over-funding police, transferring Covid relief funds to the cops, and telling city police departments to form SCORPION units to beat us to death.
https://bsky.app/profile/mekka.mekka-tech.com/post/3l5asqirryi2z
After Jan 6, he told Black staffers that he would "Fire them on the spot" if they weren't sufficiently polite to insurrectionists.
https://hachyderm.io/@mekkaokereke/113421618170563036
How he mischaracterized Black Gaza protesters.
Etc,
@mekkaokereke Thank you, that is helpful.
@mekkaokereke she made zero effort to win back Dearborn, instead doing everything to tell it's residents to f*** off and die.