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One thing I guess I want to explain, especially in light of this week's SGW:
Why am I so relentlessly optimistic about the long term for trans rights, lives, and futures, despite how shitty and awful the backlash against us is these days?
It really comes down to demographics and rhetoric. Like, root and stem.
(1/?)
Over 20% of Gen Z is queer and out about it, and the numbers are rising every goddamned year.
Stop and think about that. *Twenty fucking percent*. One in five. And good data suggests that better than one in twenty Gen Zers are trans and out. And that group votes almost exclusively on the left.
Absolutely no political ANYTHING wins, long term, by attacking a demographic that votes as a bloc.
(2/?)
As time passes, the people who most oppose queer and trans rights are dying, and now they're dying fast. They're being replaced by people on the opposite end of the political spectrum.
And we have absolutely no reason to believe that trans and queer folks will ever go back into the closet.
(3/?)
There's a myth that people vote more conservatively as they age, and it's bullshit. There's some rightward drift as folks become wealthier, but in general for the last several centuries the median political position on everything has drifted slowly to the left.
And our current economic inequality is only exacerbating the leftwsrd tilt of young voters, who are wildly poorer than prior generations.
(4/?)
The net of all of this is that the right is facing a reality where identity politics are failing more by the year, and they really don't have anything else in the tank.
Either they win now and fundamentally change the system, or it's game over for them.
(5/?)
So, yes, while certain candidates pose an immediate, existential threat to us, if we can avoid them for even a little while longer, all the gerrymandering in the world can't save them. Really, worse than that--it'll suddenly snap back against them, driving them from power in unimaginable waves. Just look at what happened in the most recent UK elections for a really good example of what happens when the gerrymandering collapses.
(6/?)
So, yeah, if we can make it through the next few years, we have every reason to believe this demographic tidal wave is irreversible. The time to stop it, for the right, was back in like 2014.
Theyre a decade too late. Kairos.
And that's why I'm relentlessly optimistic about our future.
(7/7)
Me happy to have read this wondering if you'll go back to old posts and replace the ? with a 7.
Because I'm dumb and my brain is annoying.
@Impossible_PhD I think it's also important to note that, when you look back through history, conservative movements are always trying to "get back to the good old days". While a few of those people have some sort of Nazi or white plantation fantasy, for most it's the "good old days" that they remember.
The number of people who remember a time when gay people weren't out and proud are rapidly dwindling. Same with trans people. We're out now and every new US voter who just turned 18 does not remember a time when trans people didn't exist in public life. As long as we stay out and proud, that is going to continue.
A few of them were so sheltered that they may not have known about trans people until they moved out of their parents house but it's a small number. (That's also why the right is so fascinated by homeschooling. It's a way to create new voters with their same regressive view of history.)
@Impossible_PhD The counter to this, of course, is that we also have thousands of years of history showing that misogyny is going nowhere and plenty of Andre Tates and Elon Musks trying their hardest to raise another generation of misogynists along with hundreds of tradwife influencers trying to groom young women into their grasps.
Even if the current flight against trans existence is doomed to fail, the fight for our humanity is far from over.
@Impossible_PhD it's the getting through the next few years... But we're sure as hell not going back
@Impossible_PhD I find your optimism quite comforting. You understand trends and demographic numbers far more then I, and see no reason to be pessimistic.
I very much hope we and many many others see the tide permanently change.
@Impossible_PhD
I don't think the UK elections are such a good example. Labour took a hard right turn several years ago, and a lot of what they do is the same as the Tories did, especially when it comes to trans people.
@gistofspirit I was referring specifically to what happens when a gerrymandering collapses, not about their politics.
@Impossible_PhD I wrote a long post last year about my optimism about the future of trans people; even though I touch on the topic of visibility rather than shifting demographics, I fully agree with what you wrote: https://c.im/@portugeek/110842531349215884
I would add something though: it used to be true that the older you got, the more conservative you tended to vote, but a lot of us (I’m a political scientist by training) didn’t realise the causation wasn’t age but wealth. It had all to do with protecting the status quo, not about wisdom or any other BS explanation shoved down our throats.
And as less and less wealth is distributed among younger generations, the more these will shift towards the left, regardless of them being queer or not. Although (and here I can tie my point to yours) the more visibility is given to our community, the more people will feel free to understand they are queer, come out and identify as their true selves (looking at myself here). Knock-off effects and all that.
TLDR: The right is devoid of ideas and is basing its platform on little more than hate and vitriol. And the more they do that, in defence of their wealth and power, the more they will drive people away from electing them.
@Impossible_PhD (American citizen, not queer ->) this made me quite happy to read thank you :-)