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I appreciate news orgs doing this sort of “here’s the big picture” reporting:
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/14032024/inside-clean-energy-coal-power-decline/
This isn’t breaking news. This is seeing the forest instead of running through the woods and smacking into one tree at a time.
Renewables number is off though. If you're looking at utility scale projects you're not factoring in residential solar in particular. Of course nobody wants to talk about the shitshow when solar costs drop enough and energy efficiency rises enough that solar panels are everywhere, but that's coming. Probably 2030 at the latest tbh.
Assuming data centers don't just start subsidizing it. THEN you're really gonna see some shit!
@Dseitz
My understanding is that residential solar is still <20% of total solar, which means it does not make much of a dent in that graph. If the numbers are “off,” they’re not off by much.
The article does specifically mention that the renewables curve is likely to bend in a favorable direction as cost structure shifts.
@Dseitz Yeah, here we go:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1419815/solar-energy-capacity-by-sector-united-states/
Residential solar capacity (note that capacity ≠ production) just recent crept up to 21% of total US solar capacity.
That’s just solar, which is ~20% of all electricity. So if that graph included residential solar, the renewables line would be 21% of 20% = ~4% higher, which really doesn’t change the big picture it paints. (Unless I missed something, which is of course likely)
You didn't. It's just REALLY hard to track this stuff. I'm not sure if utility scale includes private facilities, for example, but if you like irony fossil fuel companies are building private renewables site as fast as they can.
@Dseitz @inthehands It's just continuity planning for when their original golden goose gets slain.
Nah they don't think that far ahead. What it is, is renewables are cheaper than their own products for energy. Increasingly all your gas is pumped, piped, refined, and shipped with green energy due to cost. It's hilarious.
Also there's the bizarre incentives of GHG scopes. The ENTIRE oil supply chain is going to be decarbonized before anything else short of utility scale power even as they push oil products harder and I know how fucking weird that sounds, but it's the easiest and cheapest way to comply with the regs.
@inthehands that's cool. It will be interesting to see what happens if US shale gas production enters step decline, as some people are predicting