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@Alon @mekkaokereke
Do pollsters simply ask couples whether they voted identically or similarly? Seems to me that many women might say “Of course we did” and keep her true actions to herself.

@Radaghaz @mekkaokereke This is an exit poll, so pollsters ask voters randomly and separately. (And, because people asked on Bluesky: the gap between married women and men in 2022 was the same three points - it's unmarried women who blueshifted. https://edition.cnn.com/election/2022/exit-polls/national-results/general/us-house/0)

@Alon @Radaghaz @mekkaokereke would you trust a random exit poll worker enough to tell them your. *secret by design* choice of vote, if there could be actual physical/monetary/social harm for you if it came out?
I certainly wouldn't.

@mavu @Alon @Radaghaz @mekkaokereke In support of this is a moderately higher response rate among married men, 30 vs 26% of respondents, when the population sizes are equal (yes there’s SSM but it’s less than 1% of the registered voter population and also it’s nearly balanced between men and women).

@Colinvparker @mavu @Radaghaz @mekkaokereke There's a poll by YouGov on it that finds some people vote differently from their partners without telling them, but the net gender impact is low (1 man in 10, 1 woman in 8, for a net of 1 in 40). https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/11/01/women-voting-secret-choice/

@Alon @mavu @Radaghaz @mekkaokereke Yeah so 1/10 is quite a bit higher than 3% and close to where I would have guessed the CW is. It’s a 2.5% effect, so even increasing it modestly to 3% is a net 1% swing and potentially important in a race this close.

@Colinvparker @Alon @mavu @Radaghaz

Early in the campaign, I told people that if Biden lost trust with Black voters, enough would choose not to vote for him that he would lose the election. None of y'all believed me.

Then 20% of Black men who would have voted for Biden, decided to sit it out. Biden was destined to lose.

Then Harris took over, and the 20% came Back. Harris was destined to win.

Then the Harris campaign spent Sept. alienating those voters again. Some opted out again.

@mekkaokereke @Colinvparker @Alon @mavu @Radaghaz If Harris has truly increased her support among college-educated white women nationally to +23 from Biden's +9, as ABC Ipsos says, that's a lot of voters. An estimated 29% of all Biden voters were college whites, meaning at least 15% college WW. I don't know how that will play out in GA, of course, but this appears to be a cycle for unusual voting patterns.

@smach @Colinvparker @Alon @mavu @Radaghaz

The national numbers among college educated white women are good, in large part because of turnout, not swing. Ie, getting Taylor Swift to tell her base to make sure that they vote, and that she endorses Kamala Harris, makes more white women Dem voters likely to vote, and most importantly *does not dissuade Black men from voting*.

In the most important states (WI, MI, PA MN) white women already vote more for non-fash than fash.

1/N

@smach @Colinvparker @Alon @mavu @Radaghaz

In Georgia and North Carolina, the polls have not moved as much. And nationally, the college educated white women swings have been offset by the non-college educated white women swings in the other direction. Nationally, it's still a toss up if white women as a group will vote for Harris or Trump. Trump is currently up ~3% with white women.

Most of these women have agency in their choices. They know exactly who Trump is, and they choose him.

2/2

@mekkaokereke @Colinvparker @Alon @mavu @Radaghaz Absolutely, I’m not arguing that point. But if the attention on a minority of white women who don't feel like they control their own votes, helps a few women feel like they can vote how they want when they didn’t before, I’m all for it. That's not meant to pretend most women aren’t making their own choices.

@mekkaokereke @Colinvparker @Alon @mavu @Radaghaz My heart breaks for women in relationships where they are afraid of their partners. I was fortunate to be raised in a family with strong women as role models, but I know there are way too many girls being raised in cultures where they're trained to be submissive.

@Colinvparker @Alon @mavu @Radaghaz

I've shared on here before that the "Young Black men are voting more for Trump! They're moving to the right!" is a lie told with data. In fact, the opposite is true. They're moving further to the left, and were sick of Biden.

Take a look at the math on the below post. What looked like Black men moving to the right, was in reality Black men and women both moving further left, but disagreeing on tactics.

https://hachyderm.io/@mekkaokereke/113351037260387408

@mekkaokereke @Colinvparker @mavu @Radaghaz Yep, and *in general*, there's a media moral panic about young men moving right, since in South Korea, they are. But it's not visible in polling in the US or Germany, where young men aren't moving right, young women are just moving left faster.

This is of course layered on the white desire to believe that minorities are bigoted too, hence the focus on anti-black NBPOC (and not on anti-black whites), anti-immigrant black voters, POC anti-Semitism, etc.

@mekkaokereke @Colinvparker @mavu @Radaghaz (I had to delurk on Twitter a few months ago just because I kept seeing otherwise-reasonable Jewish accounts say that the Courbevoie gang-rape of the Jewish girl was committed by Arab boys; in fact the perpetrators were white.)